Auto volume review: 2Ws shine in Nov; TVS, Bajaj Auto, Eicher among firms with double-digit domestic wholesale growth

According to global brokerage Jefferies’ estimates, domestic two-wheeler (2W) wholesales rose 31% YoY in November (YTD-FY24: 9%). Registrations in the month also grew 19% YoY, partly boosted by the later timing of the festive season this year. The combined Sep-Nov registrations were up a healthy 8% YoY (YTD-FY24: +7%).

Double-digit growth in domestic wholesales was observed across various 2W OEMs in November, with volumes increasing by 50–77% YoY for TVS Motor Company and Bajaj Auto and 14–25% YoY for Royal Enfield (Eicher Motors), Honda, and Hero MotoCorp.

The share of electric vehicles (EVs) in 2Ws dipped slightly by 100 basis points (MoM) to 4.1% in November. 2W exports experienced a marginal 2% YoY decline and a 5% MoM drop, the brokerage noted.

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The brokerage estimates showed that passenger vehicle (PV) wholesales rose a modest 3% YoY in November (YTD-FY24: 8%). Registrations exhibited better performance with an 18% YoY increase, benefiting from the delayed festive season. Combined registrations from September to November grew by 11% YoY (YTD-FY24: +7%).

In November, domestic wholesales witnessed a robust 32% YoY growth for Mahindra & Mahindra, while Maruti Suzuki and Hyundai India reported only 1-3% YoY growth. The growth was flat for Tata Motors.

Truck wholesales faced a decline of around 4% YoY in November, according to Jefferies’ estimates, while registrations grew by just 1% YoY. E-way bills indicated a positive trend, rising by 30% YoY in October (+18% CYTD), suggesting strong freight demand (November data is awaited).

The brokerage pointed out that tractor wholesales grew by approximately 7% YoY in November after two consecutive months of decline (YTD-FY24: -3%). However, tractor registrations witnessed a sharp 21% YoY drop in November, with September to November registrations down by 10% YoY, indicating weak underlying demand, it noted.

In November, total volumes saw a YoY increase of 26-31% for Hero MotoCorp , TVS Motor Company, and Bajaj Auto, and 13-16% YoY growth for Eicher Motors (Royal Enfield) and Mahindra and Mahindra. Maruti Suzuki posted a modest 3% YoY growth, whereas Ashok Leyland and Tata Motors experienced a decline of 2-3% YoY.

Bajaj Auto, TVS, and M&M surpassed the brokerage estimates, while Hero MotoCorp and Eicher Motors met the expectations. However, Tata Motors, Maruti Suzuki, and Ashok Leyland fell short of the brokerage estimates.

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