Reliance share price: Here are the 3 key favorable catalysts as per Macquarie research that sees up to 20% upside

Stock Market Today: Reliance share price while had slipped to 52 week lows of ₹1,156.00 on 3rd March , however has rebounded well. The stock is up almost 5% in last 5 trading session.

Macquarie Research had recently upgraded RIL shares to Outperform ratings noting a series of incremental positives over the next 6-12 months. This Bull-Bear scenario weighted new price target for Reliance Industries or RIL share price-stands at ₹1,500, which is also 15% higher versus prior price target. The Target price of ₹1500 indicates almost 20% upside for the stock

Highlighting the slew of favorable catalysts, Macquarie Equity Research in its 7 March 2025 report have said that the Earnings growth momentum at at inflection. While FY26-27 Earnings per share or EPS had been cut by 12-17% by consensus over the past year, they now view expectations as fair.

Going ahead, compared to the mere 2% EPS CAGR expectations, during in FY23-25, consensus forecast an improvement to a 15-16% FY25-27 EPS CAGR.

Segmental earnings outlook

As per Macquarie estimates at the group net profit level (adjusted for minorities) the incremental earnings delta is evenly split between the consumer facing businesses (JIO and retail) and the energy business (Refining and others).

1.For Jio Macquarie sees mild subscriber growth ( of just 2%), however Average revenue per user or (ARPU) uplift is pegged at 10% CAGR and Earnings before interest tax depreciation and amortisation (Ebitda) margin expansion of 200 basis point helping expand segmental Ebitda to around $ 10 Billion by FY27 estimates (compared to $7 billion in FY24);. At the group level this is the biggest absolute delta over the next 2-3 years as per Macquarie

2. For Retail segment, while visibility is low, company commentary suggests a turnaround from the low single digit core segmental revenue growth in FY25 to 15%plus. They don’t see a further margin expansion as they build in higher revenue share in the lower-margin grocery segment (current contribution about half of core revenue).

3. In the Oil-to-Chemicals Macquarie builds in a mild cyclical margin recovery, while in Upstream Gas earnings should be supported by full-year peak production contribution

Disclaimer: The views and recommendations given in this article are those of individual analysts. These do not represent the views of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.