Aniket PujariThe stock market has been rocked over the past month as recession fears mounted on Wall Street and Donald Trump’s shifting tariff policy escalated into a global trade war. Since the Club’s February Monthly Meeting, the S & P 500 , Nasdaq Composite and Dow Jones Industrial Average surrendered all their postelection gains. The tech-heavy Nasdaq also entered into correction territory, defined as down more than 10% from a recent high, and on Monday posted its steepest one-day drop since 2022. The stock market’s slide has come amid a string of disorderly trade policy moves , which have shaken corporate and consumer confidence and made it harder for investors to predict future earnings. Since the Feb. 20 Monthly Meeting to Wednesday’s close, S & P 500 and Dow tumbled over 8% and 6%, respectively. The Nasdaq shed more than 11%. The top performers in the Club’s 32-stock portfolio during the difficult market were Bristol Myers Squibb , Texas Roadhouse and Danaher , while the biggest decliners were Nvidia, CrowdStrike and Capital One Financial. Here’s what drove the moves in each over the 20-day period. Winners BMY TXRH,DHR mountain 2025-02-20 Bristol Myers’ stock performance since Feb. 20 compared with Texas Roadhouse and Danaher. 1. Bristol Myers Squibb up 7.2% This stock came out on top because investors crowded into health care and other defensive names due to economic concerns. In fact, shares of the drugmaker hit a 52-week high earlier this week. We capitalized on Bristol Myers’ strength last Friday, making a sale into strength to lock in profits. Our long-term thesis on underappreciated schizophrenia drug Cobenfy is still intact. Rather, our trim was about maintaining discipline because we viewed the rally into defensives as unsustainable if there’s improving economic data or easing trade rhetoric from the White House. That’s already showing up somewhat, with Bristol Myers down 5% since Monday’s close. 2. Texas Roadhouse up 2.2% Shares have dodged the overall market rout, in part, because of the company’s lack of direct exposure to tariffs. As a U.S. restaurant chain, Texas Roadhouse has less reliance on international imports. The stock’s outperformance can also be pinned to some catch-up dynamics following its post-earnings decline last month. We bought more shares twice this week on the assumption that value-conscious customers will flock to its locations even amid uncertainty around consumer spending. 3. Danaher down 1.4% The rotation into defensive health-care stocks helps explain why Danaher shares were sparred from the worst of the market volatility, even if their performance would be nothing to write home about in a more ho-hum period. The stock is still trading well below where it was to start the year in the wake of its Jan. 29 earnings plunge. That also meant there wasn’t as much downside to be had when the broader market started to decline a few weeks back. News around Danaher’s cost-savings initiative and a 19% increase to its quarterly dividend may also have lent some support to the stock. Laggards CRWD mountain 2025-02-20 CrowdStrike’s performance since Feb. 20 compared with Nvidia and Capital One. 1. CrowdStrike down 20.5% This cybersecurity stock was the portfolio’s weakest performer since our February meeting. CrowdStrike got hit alongside other higher-multiple, momentum-driven tech stocks as slowdown fears caused investors to reduce their risk exposure. On March 5, the stock tumbled further after management issued light guidance during its earnings release. It was still a better-than-expected quarter, though, so we upgraded the stock to a buy-equivalent 1 rating and added to our position March 5. We bought more stock again on Monday. 2. Nvidia down 17.4% Shares were partially hurt by the same risk-off dynamic that dented CrowdStrike and other tech stocks. The chipmaker’s shares also have been held back by worries about the pace of AI spending. Its earnings report in late February was not enough to quell those concerns, even though the numbers were better than expected and its current quarter guidance exceeded estimates. Jim Cramer also has warned that short-term options contracts could be exacerbating the downside moves for Nvidia. 3. Capital One down 17% This stock took a beating with the rest of the financial sector as confidence in the health of the U.S. economy was called into question. A weaker economy typically leads to softer consumer spending and loan growth, which wouldn’t bode well for Capital One. We only initiated a position on March 6, though, after the stock fell 9.5% between Feb. 20 and March 5. We’ve bulked up the position multiple times since then, including again Wednesday morning. The company’s pending acquisition of Discover Financial Services is a major potential catalyst for the stock. Discover owns a card network, which could reduce Capital One’s reliance on the networks of MasterCard and Visa . (See here for a full list of the stocks in Jim Cramer’s Charitable Trust.) As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling a stock in his charitable trust’s portfolio. If Jim has talked about a stock on CNBC TV, he waits 72 hours after issuing the trade alert before executing the trade. 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Traders on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange.
Carlo Allegri | Reuters
The stock market has been rocked over the past month as recession fears mounted on Wall Street and Donald Trump’s shifting tariff policy escalated into a global trade war.
