Medium to long-term bonds are ‘attractive’ in Indian fixed-income market, says LGT Wealth’s Chirag Doshi

The Indian fixed-income market is currently influenced by both domestic economic indicators and significant global developments. As of March 20, 2025, the 10-year Government Security (G-Sec) yield stands at 6.63% (semi-annual), reflecting a stable interest rate environment.

This stability is underpinned by recent inflation data, RBI rate cut expectations and governments fiscal discipline:

Domestic Inflation Trends:

• Consumer Price Index (CPI) Inflation: Dropped to 3.61% in February 2025, the first time in six months it has fallen below 4%, primarily due to declining vegetable and food prices.

• Wholesale Price Index (WPI) Inflation: Increased slightly to 2.38% in February from 2.31% in January, driven by higher prices of manufactured food products like vegetable oils and beverages.

Global Factors Impacting Fixed Income:

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on March 19, 2025, resulted in the U.S. Federal Reserve maintaining the federal funds rate at 4.25% to 4.50%. The Fed’s economic projections reflect a cautious stance:

• GDP Growth: Revised downward to 1.7% (from 2.1% in December 2024). • Unemployment Rate: Expected to rise to 4.4% (from 4.1%).

• Inflation: Higher than previous forecasts, adding pressure on global bond markets. The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation rate is expected to reach 2.7%, higher than the 2.1% forecasted in December 2024.

The easing of CPI inflation in India suggests reduced consumer price pressures, potentially opening the door for RBI rate cuts in the coming months. However, the modest rise in WPI inflation indicates increasing input costs, which could impact corporate margins and future pricing.

Market Outlook & Investment Strategies

With expectations of rate cuts, investors should optimize their fixed-income allocations:

1. Focus on Medium- to Long-Duration Bonds

• Falling interest rates increase bond prices, making 5- to 10-year bonds attractive. • Short-term bonds offer stability but may underperform in a declining rate scenario.

2. Invest in High-Quality Corporate Bonds

• AAA-rated corporate bonds currently yield 7.5% to 8.5%, offering a strong balance of safety and returns.

• AA-rated and high-yield bonds provide higher returns but require careful credit assessment.

3. Consider State Government Bonds (SDLs)

• SDLs offer 30-50 basis points higher yields than G-Secs.

• These bonds are an attractive long-term option, backed by sovereign credit quality.

4. Use Mutual Funds & Bond ETFs for Flexibility

• Dynamic Bond Funds adjust portfolios based on interest rate movements. • Target Maturity Funds (TMFs) provide predictable returns, ideal for conservative investors.

Fixed Income Investment Picks

Based on the current market environment, the following instruments offer attractive opportunities:

1. AAA-Rated Corporate Bonds (2–5 Years Maturity)

• Higher yields than government securities with strong credit quality.

• Suitable for investors seeking stable income with minimal risk.

2. Medium-Duration Government Securities (5-10 Years Maturity)

• Offers liquidity and flexibility while managing interest rate risk.

• A preferred option ahead of potential RBI rate cuts.

3. High-Yield Opportunities in NBFC & Select Corporate Debt

• Focus on well-rated NBFCs and select AA/AA- rated corporates with strong asset-liability management.

• These bonds offer a yield premium over AAA-rated issuances, balancing higher returns with prudent credit selection.

Conclusion

The Indian fixed-income market presents strategic investment opportunities as inflation moderates and global monetary policy remains in focus. The significant drop in CPI inflation to 3.61% raises expectations of RBI rate cuts, while WPI inflation at 2.38% signals rising input costs.

With the U.S. Fed holding rates steady, global liquidity conditions will play a crucial role in Indian debt market trends. Investors should adopt a balanced approach, combining government securities, high-quality corporate bonds, and flexible investment vehicles like dynamic bond funds.

A well-structured allocation in medium- to long-duration bonds, SDLs, and corporate debt will help optimize risk-adjusted returns in the evolving interest rate environment.