Aniket Pujari
Kevin O’Leary downplays a possible December Fed rate cut, saying persistent inflation may keep policy tight and Bitcoin will likely drift within about 5% of current prices.
Summary
- O’Leary rejects market odds of a December cut, saying he is not positioning his portfolio for easier policy.
- He expects Bitcoin to trade within roughly 5% of current levels whatever the Fed decides, seeing no major catalyst.
- His view contrasts with CME FedWatch odds near 88% for a cut, driven by shifting inflation data and recent Fed commentary.
American entrepreneur and investor Kevin O’Leary has stated that a potential Federal Reserve interest rate cut in December would have minimal impact on Bitcoin prices, countering market speculation linking monetary policy to cryptocurrency movements.
O’Leary, known for his role on the television program “Shark Tank,” said in a recent interview that he does not expect the Fed to cut rates in December and is not structuring his investments around such an outcome.
Kevin O’Leary bullish on Bitcoin and Fed cut
“I don’t actually think the Fed’s gonna cut in December,” O’Leary stated. “I’m not investing that way. I’m not investing as if the Fed is going to cut rates. So I just don’t see it,” he said.
The investor added that a rate decision would not significantly affect Bitcoin regardless of the outcome. “I think it’s going to sort of drift within 5% of where it is now, in either direction,” O’Leary said, indicating he sees no major catalyst for substantial price movement.
O’Leary’s position contrasts sharply with current market expectations. The CME’s FedWatch Tool assigns an 88.1% probability to a December rate cut, according to the latest data. This represents a significant shift from late November, when the odds fell to 33%.
The investor cited persistent inflationary pressures as a primary reason the Fed may maintain current rates. U.S. annual inflation rose to 3% in September, marking the highest level since January, according to government data.
“It’s a dual mandate, full employment and inflation,” O’Leary said. “And so the tariffs are starting to take hold and input costs.”
Bitcoin (BTC) has declined 14% over the past month, according to market data. Cryptocurrency markets traditionally react to monetary policy changes, as lower interest rates typically reduce returns on traditional savings vehicles and prompt investors to seek alternative assets.
Market expectations regarding Fed policy have fluctuated significantly in recent weeks. On Nov. 19, rate-cut odds dropped from 67% earlier in the month to 33%, only to rebound sharply following comments from New York Fed President John Williams on Nov. 21.
Williams stated that the Fed could cut rates “in the near term” without compromising inflation progress, according to published reports. Bloomberg analyst Joe Weisenthal attributed the subsequent surge in rate-cut expectations to Williams’ remarks.
The Fed implemented two consecutive interest rate cuts earlier this year, one in September and another in November, reinforcing expectations of continued monetary easing through the end of 2025.
O’Leary maintained that Bitcoin would remain in a narrow trading range regardless of Fed actions. “I don’t see it negatively affecting Bitcoin,” he said, dismissing concerns that an unexpected hold on rates could destabilize cryptocurrency markets.
The Fed’s December meeting is scheduled to take place amid continued debate over the central bank’s dual mandate of maintaining price stability and full employment.
