Consumer inflation fears spike in February as tariff worries hit sentiment

Consumers grew dramatically more worried about near-term inflation as President Donald Trump pushed aggressive tariffs against major U.S. trading partners, a closely watched survey showed Friday.

The University of Michigan consumer survey for February showed that respondents expect the inflation rate a year from now to be 4.3%, a 1 percentage point jump from January and the highest level since November 2023.

Though Trump postponed tariffs against Canada and Mexico, the looming threat of price pass-throughs to consumers shook sentiment. China has levied retaliatory tariffs following Trump’s move. The survey window ran from Jan. 21, the day after Trump took office, to Feb. 3.

“Many consumers appear worried that high inflation will return within the next year,” said Joanne Hsu, the survey’s director. “This is only the fifth time in 14 years we have seen such a large one-month rise (one percentage point or more) in year-ahead inflation expectations.”

Longer-run expectations weren’t hit as much, with the five-year outlook drifting up to 3.3%, a 0.1 percentage point gain.

Worries over inflation dovetailed with lower optimism overall, as the headline index fell to 67.8, a one-month drop of 4.6% and an 11.8% move lower from the same month a year ago. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been looking for a reading of 71.3.

The survey sometimes is influenced by shifting political winds. However, Hsu noted that declining sentiment was “pervasive, with Republicans, Independents, and Democrats all posting sentiment declines from January, along with consumers across age and wealth groups.”

Stocks turned lower after the report, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average initially off nearly 300 points.

“Higher prices from tariffs are the number one financial concern for Americans, as the weight of inflation is still oppressive to family budgets, especially among those with lower incomes,” said Robert Frick, corporate economist at Navy Credit Union. “Even slight increases in prices, especially in top pain points such as food, shelter, and transportation, would be acutely felt by millions.”

Hsu said overall declines in the various survey indexes reflect “a perception that it may be too late to avoid the negative impact of tariff policy.”

The current conditions index also slumped, down to 68.7, or 7.2% lower than January and down 13.5% from a year ago. Expectations declined to 67.3, for a respective drop of 2.9% and 10.5%.