Bitcoin’s Bull Cycle Over? This Critical Metric Says It Might Be

Bitcoin’s (BTC) prolonged downturn over the last two months has raised speculation about the end of the bull cycle and the onset of a bear market. While several market analysts continue to predict the cryptocurrency’s short-term price trajectory, only on-chain data and metrics can paint a clear picture.

A weekly report from the market intelligence platform CryptoQuant says the Bitcoin Bull Score Model can tell if this drawdown is a temporary correction or the start of a prolonged downturn. Unfortunately, this metric does not paint a bullish scenario for BTC.

The Bull Score Model

According to CryptoQuant, the Bull Score Model assesses the investment environment for BTC by evaluating nine on-chain indicators and one market metric. Each metric acts as a binary indicator of market conditions and is assigned a value of 1 (bullish) or 0 (bearish) based on rules that evaluate network activity, market liquidity, demand, and investor behavior.

The metrics include the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) Ratio, the Bitcoin Profit and Loss Index, the Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator, and the Inter-Exchange Flow Pulse (IFP). The Bitcoin Bull Score Model also includes indicators like the CryptoQuant Network Activity Index, Stablecoin Liquidity, Bitcoin Demand Growth, Trader On-chain Profit Margin, Trader Realized Price, and Technical Signal.

Currently, only two out of the ten metrics – Stablecoin Liquidity and Technical Signal – are flashing bullish signals, signifying a predominantly bearish market. CryptoQuant said such conditions reveal a lack of strong fundamentals to support and sustain a price rally or recovery.

“We can observe that the metrics have switched between bullish and bearish phases multiple times, with extended periods of green indicating strong bullish cycles and prolonged stretches of red corresponding to market conditions. Recently, a significant number of metrics have turned red, particularly since mid-February 2025,” the market analytics platform added.

Bitcoin’s Bull Cycle is Over

Some metrics, like the Network Activity Index, have been bearish since December 2024, signaling a sustained reduction in network activity. Overall, these metrics are at their least bullish state since January 2023.

The Bull Score Model measures the percentage of bullish metrics from 0 to 100, with the former being bearish and the latter being bullish. During past bull markets, BTC has experienced strong rallies with the Bull Score at 60 and above. However, whenever the Bull Score falls below 40, the cryptocurrency has witnessed prolonged downturns aligned with bear markets.

Bitcoin’s Bull Score is currently at 20 – its lowest level since January 2023 – signaling a weak investment environment and low chances of a sustained rally in the near term.