Aniket PujariGlobal headwinds continue to pose key risks for the Indian stock market and can keep the benchmark Nifty 50 near 29,000 by the end of the year, according to Rohit Srivastava, the founder and market strategist at Indiacharts.com.
“The Nifty 50 could be headed toward 29,000 due to global headwinds. So far, the index is holding on, but many stocks have started to slip below the surface. Similarly, global markets have been overheated, but US indices also broke down from an ending diagonal pattern,” Srivastava told Mint.
After suffering losses for the last two consecutive months, the index is up by over a per cent for February so far. The index hit a record high of 26,373.20 on January 5. On February 6, it closed at 25,693.70, which is 2.6% down from its record high level.
Tough times ahead?
The Nifty 50 saw sharp gains after the India-US trade deal was announced, but failed to hold altitude and has been range-bound over the last few sessions.
Srivastava believes the market may remain under pressure at higher levels if the index fails to pass its all-time high level.
The top made in January was an important one, and failure to surpass it means that the market may continue to remain under pressure at higher levels. An ending diagonal pattern during the last quarter of 2025 marks an important stock market top for the coming year,” said Srivastava.
However, factors such as a sharp reduction in interest rates and increased government capital expenditure can drive the index to the coveted 30,000 mark. But that appears unlikely at this juncture.
“Increased government spending and a dramatic set of interest rate cuts can get us on the path to 30,000 quickly, but that would also endanger our bond and currency markets,” Srivastava noted.
Srivastava expects the banking index to stay higher.
“Banks were the best performing sector of 2025, and therefore, it may be premature to say that they will also decline as much as the rest of the market. The sector was seen as having value and therefore can stay higher for longer,” said Srivastava.
About the sector, Srivastava said the sugar sector looks attractive due to its beaten-down value.
“I would look for beaten-down value, and one such segment is sugar stocks. Sugar prices are also at a multi-year low, and therefore, we could see the sugar cycle turn,” said Srivastava.
For the USDINR, Srivastava sees the 90 mark as an important support.
“If we do not go below 90, I think the rupee may weaken toward 98 in the coming year or two,” said Srivastava.
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Disclaimer: This story is for educational purposes only. The views and recommendations expressed are those of the expert, not Mint. We advise investors to consult with certified experts before making any investment decisions, as market conditions can change rapidly and circumstances may vary.
